POLITICAL STABILITY

Posted: January 4th, 2023

POLITICAL STABILITY

What Factors Increase the Level of Political Stability in a State?

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Statement of Hypothesis, Operationalization and Measurement

Research Question	The research question for the study is assess whether inappropriate leadership styles, the concept of the youth bulge when young people belonging to a certain group may become unnecessarily rowdy and unfavorable geographical place with inadequate resources impact on the political stability of a country.
Dependent Variable	Political stability
Cases	The cases that receive much attention in the study include Afghanistan and Bolivia that are experiencing significant political instability mainly due to the three factors under investigation in the study. The criteria for selecting the case studies involve searching those that have considerable history of political instability, have considerable challenges employing its people and lack effective economic progress.
Hypothesis	The study dwells on the guidance of two major hypotheses. first one being that the rate of political instability is likely to be high when the country lacks proper leadership mechanisms, those that are not strategically placed or which have unfavorable geography and where more number of youth lack consistent and reliable employmentThe second hypothesis guiding the study is political stability is likely to prevail when leaders embrace suitable leadership approaches, the young people get steady and promising job opportunities, and when the country has a suitable geography that would encourage trade or other relations with its neighbors.
Measurements of Variables	The study relies on both dependent and independent variables to arrive at the right findings.
Dependent variable	The dependent factors in this research are; Appropriate or inappropriate leadership or governance.The research shall explore whether many people prefer authoritarian to democratic leadership or vice versa. Favorable or unfavorable geographical location.The effects of the country’s topography and ease of connection with the otherHigh or low rate of employment among the youth.The study will focus on the country’s overall rate of employment while paying considerable attention to the level of employment among the youth.
Independent variable	The independent variables comprise the two nations included in the study (Afghanistan and Bolivia). The state of leadership in the recent past.The geography.The level of employment in the recent past.

Methodology

The study mainly employs the use of secondary data and existing data (both qualitative and quantitative) to acquire data that would help to understand whether leadership styles, geography and employment rate among the young people really influence political stability. The secondary data in this case refers to the data gathered and processed by one scholar and reevaluated by another researcher or review group. The study will also rely on existing data, which include the records of governmental and non-governmental institutions, research agencies, broadcasting groups, newspapers and scholarly works comprising of articles and books.[1] The two approaches are similar in the way the entail acquiring information availed by others, therefore share the merits and demerits.

The study uses the two forms of data collection (secondary data and existing data) while considering the merits and demerits associated with each approach. One of the reasons the study employs both forms is such forms of data are quickly or easily obtainable compared to primary data and serve as a suitable alternative when primary data cannot be gathered at all.[2] The study considers the approaches as being effective because they are economical and save time, expenses and effort. The data collector, for example, does not have to spend so much time in the field gathering information from respondents some of whom might not be willing to take part or may even give false information. The study uses secondary data and existing data because they increase the likelihood of gaining more understanding of the problem in the way the researcher has to read and understand the content of the scholarly work, and because the approaches provide the chance for the researcher to compare the information gathered by the investigator.[3] The research, however, takes into account the possible limitations of both data collection methods because in the two instances the quality or reliability of the information may be questionable, especially when they do not come from credible sources. In addition, many researchers feel that secondary data does not fit into their needs and might not give a true reflection of the situation or phenomenon. The study must also be cautious to avoid outdated sources of secondary data unless it is really necessary. Sometimes, using outdated sources of data may give information that is not relevant and this could have detrimental impact on the quality of the findings. The team must carefully assess the merits and demerits of using secondary data and already existing forms to avoid unnecessary challenges that could interfere with the study’s progress at an advanced stage.

Data Analysis

A review of the sources indicate that Bolivia, Afghanistan and Yemen experience considerable political instability because of their unfavorable leadership approaches, inappropriate locations and high rate of unemployment among the young people. Countries like Afghanistan and Bolivia are cut out of trade by other countries because of their lack of ports, and have encountered considerable political instability.  Bolivian President Evo Morales resigned in 2019 following mass protests that occurred across the country’s capital against evident irregularities during 2019’s presidential election.[4] The protests against authoritarian leadership in the country resulted in about 35 deaths while 800 others sustained serious injuries.[5] The political situation in Afghanistan is not any different. The analysis of the sources of data indicates that in the recent months, the intricacy of the reality in the country has fallen out of order, from the lack of understanding with several countries and groups, including the U.S., to adverse and escalated political instability. The current leadership in Afghanistan, for example, is in constant wrangles with former president Hamid Karzai who continually criticizes current president Ghani for inappropriate foreign and security policies.[6] President Ghani also faces stiff opposition from Vice President and Governor Abdul Dostum and Atta Noor for what they allege is authoritarian leadership.[7]

It is worrying the rate of employment remains low in Bolivia and Afghanistan, which requires considerable attention to avoid witnessing increased cases of unemployment. The unemployment rate in Bolivia increased by 0.02% from 2017 to 3.26% in 2018 meaning that the number of people without jobs in the country increased over the year.[8] The case is more serious in Afghanistan where Central Statistics Organization (CSO) reports that lack of jobs in the public and private sectors increased from 25% in 2015 to about 40% a year later thereby marking a 15% increase.[9] The young people who worked in the various sectors are now jobless and no new jobs are created to salvage the situation. Unless something happens to ease the situation in Bolivia and Afghanistan the jobless youth are likely to revolt, which will contribute to political instability.

It is essential to introduce measures that would restore political stability in both countries because failure to act may have detrimental repercussions. The prolonged political instability in Afghanistan emanating from inappropriate leadership styles, for example, as well as the ineffectiveness of the National Unity Government, have caused divisions along ethnic and political lines in the  Afghan society. The situation was much worse during the 2018 general elections when nearly ten candidates were killed during the political campaigns while tens of civilians lost their lives while hundreds others sustaining severe injuries because of the clash, thus replicating what occurred in during the 2019 Bolivian elections. Failing to act very fast may cause many other fatalities and containing the problem may be hard.

The findings of the study encourage leaders to take measures that would encourage political stability to avoid harming the economy and the overall country’s stability. Leaders and other stakeholders in the political sector should always remember that carrying out transparent and orderly elections is essential. The leaders should encourage the development of a free and fair electoral body and avoid any indulgence in corrupt dealing during electioneering period. Leaders should understand the benefits of promoting democracy rather than scrambling for power and using inappropriate means to secure leadership or cling to power. The leaders should engage as many stakeholders as possible in the mitigation process to embrace decisions that benefit everyone, and to avoid fatalities that could worsen political stability. Alternatively, the countries facing considerable political instability should consider increasing more job opportunities, especially for the youth who are likely to cause trouble when they are increasingly jobless. The state leaders have to identify the most suitable ways of absorbing as many young people as possible into the job sector to suppress the severe effects that could occur when the youth do not have anything constructive to do. Initiating youth programs, offering youth funds and establishing more publicly held companies where the youth can secure employment may go along way into building political stability. Bolivia and Afghanistan lack ports, but this does not mean that they cannot trade with neighboring countries or import or even export to other countries. The government and other stakeholders should put much investment in the creation of better roads and bridges to connect people from one region to the other. Bolivia, for example, is highly likely to benefit from high bridges considering its mountainous nature. Nonetheless, it may only be possible to enact the desired changes that would stabilize the economy if all stakeholders, including the political leaders and citizens join hands to achieve a common goal. More fundamentally, countries should use various tools to assess their political stability to examine how well they are prepared to achieve effectiveness in their political operations. A suitable framework is to use is the SWOT analysis that allows the countries to understand their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats when it comes to strengthening political stability.

Bibliography

European Eye on Radicalization. “Political Instability in Afghanistan and the Terrorist Threat.” European Eye on Radicalization, November 12, 2019. https://eeradicalization.com/political-instability-in-afghanistan-and-the-terrorist-threat/

Federal Foreign Office. “Bolivia – Helping the Country Regain Political Stability.” Federal Foreign Office, March 12, 2020.

https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/maas-rodriguez/2318216

Macrotrends. “Bolivia Unemployment Rate 1991-2020.” Macrotrends, 2020. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/BOL/bolivia/unemployment-rate

Mochmann, Ekkehard. Data Archiving and the Uses of Secondary Analysis. Central Archives for Empirical Social Research, 2016.

TOLOnews. “Unemployment Rate Spikes in Afganistan.” TOLOnews, October 2, 2016. https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/unemployment-rate-spikes-afghanistan

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[1] Ekkehard Mochmann. Data Archiving and the Uses of Secondary Analysis (Central Archives for Empirical Social Research, 2016) 54.

[2] Ibid, 56.

[3] Ibid, 56.

[4] Federal Foreign Office. “Bolivia – Helping the Country Regain Political Stability.” Federal Foreign Office, March 12, 2020. https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/maas-rodriguez/2318216

[5]Ibid

[6] European Eye on Radicalization. “Political Instability in Afghanistan and the Terrorist Threat.” European Eye on Radicalization, November 12, 2019. https://eeradicalization.com/political-instability-in-afghanistan-and-the-terrorist-threat/

[7]Ibid

[8] Macrotrends. “Bolivia Unemployment Rate 1991-2020.” Macrotrends, 2020. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/BOL/bolivia/unemployment-rate

[9] TOLOnews. “Unemployment Rate Spikes in Afganistan.” TOLOnews, October 2, 2016. https://tolonews.com/afghanistan/unemployment-rate-spikes-afghanistan