Introduction to Systems Analysis

Posted: August 26th, 2021

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Introduction to Systems Analysis

Executive Summary

The assessment on the MDBF forecast for the three years reveals that the mean distance between failures as estimated of 40, 000 miles failure is poised to increase beyond the target. According to the model, holding all factors constant the estimated increase in the first year is 1,228 fleets with average MBDF of 102 per year,  2,431 in the second year with average MBDF of 202 and 9,314 fleets in the third year with an average MBDF of 776 fleets (See Excel Output). Subsequently, the assessment on availability versus availability goal of 98% indicates that fleet availability is likely to supersede the Goal of 98% with a significant margin of 0.16%. Moreover, concerning maintenance costs, it is likely to increase over the forecast period of three years (See Excel, Part 2 solutions).  

Plot 1: Forecasted MDBF and AMBDF versus the Goal (40,000 miles)

Figure 1: Forecasted MDBF and AMBDF versus the Goal (40,000 miles)

Figure 1 above shows the forecasted mean distance between failures and average meant the distance between failures versus the target goal of 40,000 miles failures.

Plot 2: Forecasted Maintenance Costs

Figure 2: The forecasted maintenance costs

Figure 2 shows the forecasted maintenance cost over the next three years. Both preventive and corrective maintenance costs are aggregated to obtain the total costs before having them forecasted over the period.

Plot 3: Availability versus Availability Goal (98%)

Figure 3: Availability versus availability goal (98%)

Although the availability goal is set at 98%, this is likely to be surpassed as estimated over the three years.

List of Underlying Assumptions used in Building the Forecast Model

The most critical aspect of the financial project is the assumptions that underlay before the forecast. Often, in most businesses, assumptions serve as a measure of determining business quality. As such, the VMATA forecast was based on several assumptions in its reliability, availability, and maintainability assessment. The following are the assumptions used in building the forecast model for the organization;

• It is assumed that the number of maximum failures would reduce throughoutthe analysis.
• It is assumed that the mean distance between failures will reduce
• It is assumed that the maintenance costs for each vehicle will reduce or remain constant if the number of vehicles remains the same. However, any addition or increase in the number of the vehicle is likely to increase the maintenance costs.
• It is assumed that vehicles under each fleet category will remain available throughout.

Recommendations to Improve Availability and Reliability

Considering the nature of business operated by VMATA, it is critical to mane the fleets ensure that it meets the demands of the city and the general community. In this case, there is a need for proper planning to ensure that all routes and available vehicles are optimally used. Also, the city council and the organization management board should ensure appropriate tracking of drivers and timely responses whenever necessary to alleviate unnecessary costs. As such, the following are some of the recommendations that could help VMATA improve on vehicle availability and reliability besides enhancing the management of maintenance costs.

            The first immediate option is to automate the route planning for the organization fleet. In this case, the company can acquire a route planning software that can be utilized in streamlining its daily operations and processes. In this case, this will help reduce time wasted in manual route planning besides ensuring the timely availability of vehicles whenever necessary. At the same time, there is a need to introduce automated reporting, which is essential as it will enhance understanding route performance and provide metrics for strategic decision making. Equally, the management needs to implement a selection of highly efficient routes besides reducing vehicle idling. Thus, acquiring an automated strategy will help minimize time wastage, enhance proper planning, and ensure route efficiency.

            Secondly, the organization should encourage data analysis to help improve the performance of its fleet. Adequate information analysis and identification of areas with challenges can help improve performance. In this case, routing software is required, which can be utilized by experts in the company to organize the organization’s fleet information. Once analyzed, the information can help the management make informed decisions about vehicle management. The strategy can be successful through keenly analyzing various resources in the company, such as planned distances, vehicle capacity, and time management. Also, close supervision and monitoring areessential. Such a strategy will ensure that the management board has a detailed examination of the overall vehicle performance. At the same time, it will be possible to schedule timely preventive and corrective maintenance services. Sustaining the availability and reliability of these vehicles. Finally, the management should promote safe driving to ensure that the maintenance costs are kept low with vehicles always available. This can be achieved through enforcement f safety policies among the drivers. Careless driving can render vehicles unavailable and hence less reliable due to frequent defects.